USD to TRY Exchange Rate - Bloomberg Markets

The dollar spoiled it all. Forecast for 29.10.2020

The dollar spoiled it all. Forecast for 29.10.2020

Fundamental forecast for dollar for today

Donald Trump risks being remembered as a person who spoiled everything. He inherited a record-long employment growth streak, but in September, the indicator lacked 10.7 million people to equal February's values. He got a weak dollar and tried to make it even weaker to support US exporters. But in fact, the USD index has consolidated by 18% since Barack Obama's 2008 victory. Trump wanted to do his best to slow down China. Instead, he approached the moment when China's economy will outperform the US' one due to the difference in pandemic management approaches.
It's not surprising that ordinary Americans and financial markets have changed their attitude to the current president. He's losing to Joe Biden, and the S&P 500's fall on the eve of the election indicates the Republican's eventual defeat. According to Strategas Research Partners' study, the stock market has predicted election results right 20 out of 23 times since 1928. If it was growing one week before the elections, the party in power's candidate won in 86% of cases.

Trump's and Biden's ratings


Source: Financial Times.
The drowning Trump is catching at a straw. He says US GDP can grow over 30% in Q3, but obviously, the economy risks slowing down in Q4 amid fiscal stimulus exhaustion and epidemiological state worsening. According to Oxford Economics, the slowdown may go down to 3%.
Fears of the S&P 500's another collapse result in the US stock market sales and the USD consolidation. Investors consider the upcoming election to be the most uncertain ever, even more so because the White House current tenant may not recognize the results. One month ago, markets were sure restrictions would be targeted, yet they face a different picture in October.
The sharp growth of new cases in Europe forced Germany and France into closing bars, restaurants, and other service sector businesses. According to Bloomberg, that will cut French Q4 GDP by 0.8-2%.

COVID-19 cases in Europe


https://preview.redd.it/on6m9enan0w51.jpg?width=572&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=999337fd49d52666d2e7cf67280f281306884fc4
The eurozone may face a double recession faster than the US, and the economic growth divergence is advantageous to EURUSD bears. The current correction now looks reasonable, and even more so because the pandemic's spread urges on the ECB. Bloomberg's experts expected the ECB would expand QE in December, but now no one can tell for sure it won't do that on 29 October.

Trading plan for EURUSD for today

Fundamentally, the main currency pair's pullback is quite logical. However, it's surprising that the market isn't trying to exploit the factor of Joe Biden's victory. The EURUSD's rally in the next 5-7 days, followed by a sudden reversal, would be an optimal scenario. The bulls still can do some fighting if the quotes rise above 1.179-1.18 against a backdrop of the ECB's meeting.

For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/the-dollar-spoiled-it-all-forecast-for-29102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
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EUR/USD forecast: Dollar is drifting

EUUSD forecast: Dollar is drifting

Fundamental US dollar forecast for today

Investors are staying aside ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech and the publications of the US important domestic data

People see what they want to see. The euro fans are so enthusiastic that they prefer to ignore the flaws of the single European currency. Is the US-China trade resumed? It is not a problem! In 2018-2019, the EUUSD pair was falling amid the trade conflict escalation. In 2020, however, it will be rising in this case because of the diversification of the PBOC FX reserves in favor of the euro. Are there talks about the expansion of European QE? It is not a problem! The ECB just can’t ease its monetary policy as much as the Fed. Is there the second pandemic wave in Europe? It doesn’t matter; the illness is asymptomatic; there won’t be another lockdown.
Optimism grows stronger. However, people with accompanying pathologies most often die from COVID-19. If we transfer this metaphor to the global economic sense, the accompanying pathology of the export-led euro-area economy is a downturn of the international trade. The process started because of trade wars, and the pandemic intensified it. According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, flows of goods across borders were 12.5% lower in the second quarter than in the first quarter of the year. It is the worst drop since records started in 2000. In the three months through June, the US exports contracted by 24.8%, the euro-area exports were 19.2% down. However, the US exports account for 20% of the country’s GDP; in the Eurozone, they exceed 40%. The euro-area exporters will have a difficult time, taking into account the euro’s rapid growth.
With this regard, the USA is in a better position, which allows the White House to repeat its mantra about the V-shaped economic recovery. People see what they want to see. Larry Kudlow, the chief economic advisor to Trump, ignores the problems of the US labor market and the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest level since 2014. He stresses the best new home sales over the past 14 years, industrial recovery, and the S&P500 record highs.

Dynamics of US consumer confidence



Source: Bloomberg

Dynamics of new home sales in USA



Source: Bloomberg
Unlike the White House, the Federal Reserve is more cautious. Jerome Powell has many times stressed the slow GDP recovery, the necessity to take control over OCVID-19, and fresh fiscal stimulus. The Republicans and Democrats can’t reach an agreement for a new financial aid package, and the Fed has to take the responsibility. So, investors anticipate Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole to get something meaningful.
According to MUFG Bank, Powell will focus on holding low interest rates, thereby weakening the greenback. Investors expect the Fed Chair to express the Fed’s willingness to “seek a moderate inflation overshoot” and reinforce its commitment to full employment. If so, there will be other evidence that the Fed is running out of monetary tools. If the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits falls while durable goods orders rise, the EUUSD bears can go ahead and try to break out the support levels of 1.178 and 1.1755. Otherwise, weak data and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the dollar can resume the greenback’s downtrend.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-is-drifting/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar is out of fashion

EUUSD forecast: Dollar is out of fashion

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

USD shorts are now the most popular Forex trading strategy

The market is driven by emotions. If the EUUSD bulls are taken by the euphoria, no negative economic data will hold them back! The U.S. industrial production data have exceeded the forecasts, the U.S. retail sales are back at the pre-crisis levels. In the euro-area, however, the euro-area employment has dropped the most on record since the series begun in 1995. But the euro buyers are going ahead. Investors are confident that the euro-area economy will recover, and the U.S. growth will face a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic.
BofA Merrill Lynch notes that 36% of asset managers surveyed by the bank said the U.S. dollar sell positions are their favourite trading strategy, the highest in the history of research. This strategy is much ahead of all the others, its proportion increased by 6% from 30% in July, and, most likely, it will continue to gain popularity. BofA Merrill Lynch names, among other reasons, the loss of the greenback's position as a reserve currency. In fact, the countries that are under pressure from the USA are active participants in the process of de-dollarization. The proportion of the US currency in the trade settlements between Russia and China has been for the first time below 50%. In 2015, for example, the dollar’s share in the Russia-China trade settlements was more than 90%.

Dynamics of USD share in China-Russia trade settlements



Source: Wall Street Journal
Washington tries to affect Moscow using sanctions, but it uses much more sophisticated measures concerning Beijing. President Donald Trump ordered ByteDance to divest the U.S. operations of its app TikTok as the social media will cease to work in the USA in 90 days. A U.S. reprieve that had allowed some US companies to work with Huawei without a license now expires. The USA warns that the sanctions will target other China’s corporations, including Alibaba.
The US-China relations are getting tense, the parties even delayed the meeting planned for August 15 to assess the fulfilment of obligations under the trade agreement signed in January. The EUUSD bulls, however, are not concerned about the trade conflict escalation. They expect that amid such a scenario the euro’s share in the global FX reserves will increase. According to 40% of asset managers polled by BofA Merrill Lynch, this process will start already in 2021.
Forex seems to be taken away by euphoria. Hedge funds’ dollar longs versus the world eight major currencies have been in the red for the first time since May 2018. The main reason is said to be speculators’ growing interest in the euro.

Dynamics of speculative dollar positions and Treasury real yields



Source: Bloomberg
Of course, bulls’ enthusiasm used to quickly result in the capitulation in the past. However, under the current conditions, I mean the difficult epidemiological situation in the USA, Fed’s grim projections, and the upcoming presidential election in November, the US stock indexes are growing, and the EUUSD can well grow as well. Amid the current situation, it is important to check buyers’ willingness to continue the rally anyway. If the resistance at 1.188 is broken out, the pair can well continue rising.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-is-out-of-fashion/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Poor management will kill dollar

EUUSD forecast: Poor management will kill dollar

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

EUUSD pair is being corrected, but the euro uptrend is strong

You can take all my factories, all my capital, everything I have from me. But leave me five of my best managers, and before you know it, I’ll be ahead of everyone else again. One of the richest men of the 19th century, Andrew Carnegie, was right. Success in business depends on efficient management. Forex trading is also a business. The strength of a currency is determined also by efficient management. The euro-area used to envy the USA that could afford to redistribute financial resources from strong states to weak ones. Only the pandemic has forced the EU to abandon the principle “at court everyone is for himself.” It has immediately influenced the EUUSD.
In the modern world, a bet on a currency is a bet on the control over the coronavirus. However, Congress failed to agree on the extension of the program of weekly unemployment benefits that officially expired on July 31, leaving more than 25 million people without support. In Europe, however, the rich North provides aid for the poor South. So, the management in the euro-area seems to be more effective. Financial analysts suggest that poor management could kill the US dollar.
In August, the USD index has featured the worst drop over almost two years. The bear speculative
sentiment in the derivatives market is as strong as in April 2018.

Dynamics of US dollar speculative positions

Source: Wall Street Journal.
As I suggested earlier, weak data on European GDPs triggered the EUUSD correction. However, amid the divergence in the epidemiological environment, the euro-area economy is likely to recover sooner than the US growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has even suggested a fresh lockdown for 4 – 6 weeks. Allegedly, the US Congress can afford it.
The euro-area GDP in the April-May period fell by 40.3% on an annual basis, which, compared with the same period of 2019, seems to be a more dramatic drop than the US GDP drop by 32.9%. However, population support programs will continue in 2021; the worst-affected regions, including Italy, performed better than expected. The control over the coronavirus relieves fear, which is a key factor in the economic recovery trend.

Dynamics of European GDPs

Source: Bloomberg
Of course, there are many problems in the euro area. The European economy is much dependent on exports and tourism, which makes foreign demand a very important factor. Under the current conditions, it could slow down the economic recovery. Besides, the number of coronavirus cases has increased amid the end of the lockdown in some parts of the region, including Spain.
The epidemiological situation in the US is difficult, the management is poor. Besides, the US even now, when all the countries try to unite to solve a common problem, continues its attacks on China trying to please the ambitions of the White House. All these factors support the idea of the strong EUUSD uptrend. It makes sense to use the drawdowns to 1.173, 1.168, and 1.162 to enter long-term purchases.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-poor-management-will-kill-dolla?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Immediate Aftermath : The more data we collect and analyze, the clearer the picture becomes.

This is the updated first part of the list that has recorded the notable events as the world deals with the COVID-19 pandemic. [2nd Part] ― The LINKS to events and sources are placed throughout the timeline.
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The More Data We Collect and Analyze, the Clearer the Picture Becomes.
Someone threw a stone in a pond a long way away. And we're only just feeling the ripples. — Fukuhara from Giri/Haji, Netflix series
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On Jan 30, Italian PM announced that Italy had blocked all flights to and from China. While Italy has banned people from air-travelling to China, however according to IATA data, there's no measurement implemented for air-travellers from China into Italy till the Mar 07. Especially for Chinese people who have EU passports.
On Jan 31, the US announced the category-I travel restrictions, barring all foreigners who have been in China for the past 14 days, with measures including the refusal of visas and mandatory quarantine.
• "Because the US focused on China and didn't expect the infected people's entry from Europe and the Middle East, the Maginot Line was breached from behind. And so little of credible data at the beginning made the US government to miscalculate its strategic response to the virus." — Dr. Zhang Lun, currently a visiting scholar at Harvard (economics & sociology), during the interview with ICPC on Mar 29.
Also on Jan 31, the WHO changed its tune and declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.
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On Feb 02, regarding the US category-I travel restrictions, Kamala Harris, the former Democratic presidential candidate, declared on Twitter:
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different.
On Feb 03, criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying,
it's a "panicky" decision and "racist" or it's "cruel and callous," he's stoking fear for political gains, and the president is "inappropriately overreacting." And professors Liang even said the US ban "will hurt goodwill and cooperation [with China] in the future." [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]
Also on Feb 03, Mr. Tedros of the WHO said there's no need for travel ban measure that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" trying to halt the spread of the virus.
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.
Also on Feb 03, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique.
On Feb 04, The FDA has given emergency authorization to a new test kit by the CDC that promises to help public health labs meet a potential surge in cases.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens.
Also on Feb 04, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to patent the use of Remdesivir. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus.
On Feb 06, Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based research & analysis unit, noted that with State Council of PRC praising his performance of containing the pandemic situation, the council expanded Li Keqiang's political control over Politburo Standing Committee of CCP. (Li Keqiang = Communist Youth League = Shanghai clique)
Also, on Feb 06, as the US evacuation planes leave China, the wave of the US evacuees have arrived who are met by the CDC personnel at the quarantine sites for screening, and those who were suspected of infection will be placed under quarantine for 14 days.
Also, on Feb 06, a CDC-developed lab test kit to detect the new coronavirus began shipping to qualified US laboratories and international ones. — However, on Feb 12, the CDC said some of the testing kits have flaws and do not work properly. The CDC finally ended up shipping the working test kits for mass testings on Feb 27. This was three weeks later than originally planned.
On Feb 07, China National Petroleum has recently declared Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to create a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019.
On the same day, Bloomberg reported that PetroChina has directed employees in 20 countries to buy N95 face masks and send them home in China. The goal is to get 2 million masks shipped back. You can also find YouTube videos that show Overseas Chinese are scouring the masks at the Home Depot to ship them to China (the video in Korean). Also Chris Smith is pissed.
On Feb 09, Trump renews his national emergency on its southern border, and Elizabeth Goitein from the Brennan Center for Justice, published an opinion article on New York Times titled "Trump Has Abused This Power. And He Will Again if He’s Not Stopped."
On Feb 10, Dr. Tedros said that an advance three-person team of the WHO arrived in Beijing for a joint mission to discuss with Chinese officials the agenda and questions. Then, the joint mission of about 10 international experts will soon follow, he said. — Those WHO experts ended up visiting Chinese epicentre for the first time on Feb 24.
On Feb 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. The US admin seemingly tried to secure leverage against Russia after noticing something suspicious was up.
On the same day, Trump told Reuters "I hope this outbreak or this event (for the US) may be over in something like April." — Dr. Zhong Nanshan (钟南山), China's top tier SARS-hero doctor, also said "the peak of the virus (for China) should come in mid to late February, followed by a plateau or decrease," adding that his forecast was based on on mathematical modelling and data from recent events and government action.
On Feb 13, Tom Frieden who is a former US CDC chief and currently the head of public health nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives, said:
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out.
On the same day, the CDC reports that the 15th case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China.
By Feb 13, China hasn't accepted the US CDC's offer to send top experts, and they haven't released the "disaggregated" data (specific figures broken out from the overall numbers) even though repeatedly been asked.
On Feb 14, CCP's United Front posted an article on its official website, saying (Eng. text by Google Translation):
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless.
On Feb 18, Reuters reports that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list.
On Feb 21, Xi Jinping writes a thank-you letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak.
On Feb 24, China was rumoured on Twitter to delay the phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increase of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years.
Also on Feb 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.9 and closed 3128.2. By the Mar 23, it dropped to 2208.9.
Also on Feb 24, China's National Health Commission says the WHO experts have visited Wuhan city for the first time, the locked-down central Chinese city at the epicentre, inspecting two hospitals and a makeshift one at a sports centre.
On Feb 26, IF the picture that has been circulated on Twitter were real, then chief Chen Wei and her team have developed the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine within time frame of a month.
On the same day, the CDC's latest figures displays 59 people in the US who have tested positive for COVID-19.
Also on Feb 26, the Washington Post published an article that says:
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis.
On Feb 27, after missteps, the CDC says its test kit is ready and the US started to expand testing.
On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others.
Also on Feb 28, the WHO published the official report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019. (PDF)
On Feb 29, quoting Caixin media's investigation published on the same day, Lianhe Zaobao, the largest Singapore-based Chinese-language newspaper, published an article reporting the following:
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."
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On Mar 01, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law.
On the same day, Princelings published an propaganda called "A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020" which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus.
Starting on Mar 03, the US Fed has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus. It's going to be no use as if a group of people with serious means are manipulating the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns when they need it most.
On Mar 04, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China" which states that
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic.
On Mar 05, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely.
On Mar 07, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. — Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & BlackRock: One common factor that connects these people is China.
On Mar 08, the Russia–Saudi oil price war has begun. The ostensible reason was simple: China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers while claiming that the outbreak forced its economy to a standstill.
On Mar 10, the Washington Post published the article saying that the trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment urged in 2009 "immediate action" to restock the national stockpile including N95 masks, but it hasn't been replenished since.
On Mar 11, the gentleman at the WHO declares the coronavirus outbreak a "Global Pandemic." He called on governments to change the course of the outbreak by taking "urgent and aggressive action." This was a full twelve days after the organization published the official report regarding the situation in China.
On Mar 13, the US admin declared a National Emergency and announced the plan to release $50 billion in federal resources amid COVID-19.
Also on Mar 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging.
On Mar 15, Business Insider reports that Trump tried to poach German scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine and offered cash so it would be exclusive to the US. The problem is the official CureVac (the German company) twitter account, on Mar 16, 2020, tweeted the following:
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press.
On Mar 16, the fan club of European globalists has published a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.
On the same day, unlike China that had one epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously.
Also on Mar 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope.
On Mar 17, according to an article on Chinese version of Quora, Zhihu, chief Chen Wei and her team with CanSino Biologics officially initiated a Phase-1 clinical trial for COVID-19 vaccine at the Wuhan lab, Hubei China, which Bloomberg News confirmed. — Click HERE, then set its time period as 1 year, and see when the graph has started to move up.
Also on Mar 17, China's state media, China Global TV Network (CGTN), has produced YouTube videos for Middle Eastern audiences to spread the opinion that the US has engineered COVID-19 events.
Also on Mar 17, Al Jazeera reported that the US President has been criticized for repeatedly referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese Virus" as critics saying Trump is "fueling bigotry."
• China's Xinhua News tweeted "Racism is not the right tool to cover your own incompetence."
• Tucker Carlson asked: "Why would America's media take China's side amid coronavirus pandemic?"
• Also, Mr. Bill Gates: "We should not call this the Chinese virus."
On Mar 19, for the first time, China reports zero local infections.
Also on Mar 19, Al Jazeera published an analysis report, titled "Coronavirus erodes Trump's re-election prospects."
On Mar 22, Bloomberg reports that China's mobile carriers lost 21 million users during this pandemic event. It's said to be the first net decline since starting to report monthly data in 2000.
On Mar 26, EURACTV reports that China cashes in off coronavirus, selling Spain $466 million in supplies. However, Spain returns 9,000 "quick result" test kits to China, because they were deemed substandard. — Especially the sensibility of the test was around 30 percent, when it should be higher than 80 percent.
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On Apr 03, Germany and other governments are bolstering corporate defenses to address worries that coronavirus-weakened companies could be easy prey for bargain hunting by China's state owned businesses.
On Apr 05, New York Times says "Trump Again Promotes Use of Unproven Anti-Malaria Drug (hydroxychloroquine)."
On Apr 06, a Democratic State Rep. Karen Whitsett from Detroit credits hydroxychloroquine and President Trump for "saving her in her battle with the coronavirus."
On Apr 07, the US CDC removed the following part from its website.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.
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☞ If there were ever a time for people not to be partisan and tribal, the time has come: We need to be ever vigilant and attentive to all kinds of disinformation & misinformation to see it better as well as to be sharp in our lives. — We really do need to come together.
☞ At first, I was going to draw up a conspiracy theory-oriented list focused on Team-Z, especially Mr. Gates. However, although it's nothing new tbh, recently many chats and discussions seem overflowing with disinformation & misinformation which is, in my opinion, particularly painful at a time like this. Hence, this post became a vanilla list that's just recorded the notable events. — We all are subject to misinformation, miscalculation, and misjudgment. But the clearer the picture becomes the better we can identify Funkspiel.
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Immediate Aftermath pt.2.a
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Feasible Timeline of the Operation
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☞ Go Back to the Short Story.
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Cases Displaying the Recent Climate of Chinese Economy

This is just a plain list that records the notable cases about China's recent economic woes.
China is rumoured to delay indefinitely its US-China phase one trade deal (fact sheet PDF) implementation that includes the increase of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years, which is almost twice the size of what China purchased before the trade war began.
Okay.
And according to Tianyancha (天眼查), Chinese commercial database that compiles public records; more than 460,000 companies in China closed permanently in Q1 2020, with more than half of them having operated for under three years. [LINK]
Of course, this is mainly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, what's interesting to me is the following part: "more than half of them having operated for under three years." What happened three years ago?
Once you figure out how big the trade war has played in China's recent economic woes (the article samples listed below may help),
the real question is whose investment or money in China was getting destroyed especially for the last three years.
Other than the article samples listed below, two other data elements that would need to be assessed are: 1) financial loss from the US' blocking Huawei mobile OS & 5G and 2) financial loss from BRI projects.
With CCP, who has been working with Huawei as a team for a long time? [1] [2] [3]
........................................
Tale of How Shanghai clique and Prominent Globalists Got Together.
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Sep 09, 2015 -- Fortune Reports: The real ticking time bomb in China’s economy [LINK]
"[China's] Local governments have borrowed this money with the blessing of China’s central government. In fact, China’s much-lauded $570 billion stimulus package in 2008, which dwarfed the American response to its crisis relative to each country’s respective GDP was funded mostly by local government debt. That program helped power China’s economic growth since 2008, but the dividends are now drying up. As Chinese growth slows, the central government is worried about the local governments’ abilities to finance the debt.
China could continue to kick the can down the road by bailing out its insolvent local governments. But this would run counter to President Xi Jinping’s efforts to curb the power of local officials and shift China’s growth model from investment led to consumption led. Last week, Beijing placed a $16 trillion yuan cap on Chinese government debt, up $600 million yuan from a cap it set last year. And this is after the government has been swapping debt with local governments, buying up real estate-financed local debt in place of government debt officially backed by the Chinese government."
Aug 24, 2016 -- SCMP: Wanted posters for fugitive debtors and runaway bosses symptoms of China’s economic woes [LINK]
"In the first seven months of this year, there were 38 instances of default by 18 bond issuers on the mainland, six of them SOEs. The defaults involved 24.8 billion yuan, more than double the total for the past two years combined. And while only a third of issuers in default this year were SOEs, they accounted for about two-thirds of the amount in default."
Jul 12, 2017 -- The Nikkei Reports: China government auditor flags dodgy books at key state companies [LINK]
"China's National Audit Office) delved into financial statements from 20 of the 101 state enterprises directly controlled by the central government, focusing on filings from the year 2015. The records are notoriously difficult for outsiders to access, as many of the companies are core unlisted units of major state-backed business groups.
Improprieties were unearthed at 18 of the 20, including 200.1 billion yuan ($29.4 billion) in revenue inflation over the last several years and roughly 20.3 billion yuan in improperly booked profit. Culprits included China National Petroleum, one of the country's largest oil producers; China National Chemical, or ChemChina, which recently acquired Switzerland's Syngenta, the world's top maker of agrochemicals; and China Baowu Steel Group."
........................................
2018
........................................
Jul 16: China’s $42-Trillion Debt Bubble Looms Larger than Trade War [LINK]
Oct 10: Financial woes build for HNA Group, forcing sale of subsidiaries and property [LINK]
........................................
2019
........................................
Jan 25: Sinopec Says It Lost $688 Million on ‘Misjudged’ Oil Prices [LINK]
Jun 11: China’s debt disease might wreck its uncrashable housing market [LINK]
Jul 18: More than 50 companies reportedly pull production out of China due to trade war [LINK]
Jul 19: China Minsheng Investment says it cannot repay the principal and interest on US$500 million of bonds as its debt woe deteriorates [LINK]
Sep 06: China Injects $126 Billion Into Its Slowing Economy [LINK]
Oct 06: China's foreign exchange reserves fallen to mere $3.1 trillion USD [LINK]
Nov 06: China Embraces Bankruptcy, U.S.-Style, to Cushion a Slowing Economy [LINK]
Nov 25: China Faces Biggest State Firm Offshore Debt Failure in 20 Years [LINK]
Nov 28: Chinese navy set to build fourth aircraft carrier, but plans for a more advanced ship are put on hold [LINK]
Dec 02: Tech Firm Peking University Founder Welches on USD 284 Million SCP, Has USD 43 Billion Debt [LINK]
Dec 02: Sinopec Group Slims Down Amid Push to Reinvigorate State Firms [LINK]
Dec 13: Fact Sheet: Agreement Between The United States Of America And The People’s Republic Of China Text [PDF LINK]
Dec 19: Money has been leaving China at a record rate. Beijing is battling to stem the tide [LINK]
Money was leaving the country at a record clip earlier this year through unauthorized channels, according to analysts. That's bad news for China, which needs to keep financial reserves high to maintain confidence in its markets.
........................................
2020
........................................
Feb 03: Coronavirus May Delay Hard-Fought U.S. Trade Wins in China [LINK]
Feb 16: China's Evergrande to offer 25% discount for all properties on sale in Feb, March [LINK]
Apr 02: Luckin Coffee stock tanks 80% after discovery that COO fabricated about $310 million in sales [LINK]
Apr 08: Chinese e-learning king TAL Education admits inflated sales [LINK]
Chinese law prohibits Chinese companies from submitting to normal U.S. auditing standards, and four Senators have already introduced a bill requiring them to do so. Should Trump be reelected ... either Beijing will relent on auditing standards or Chinese firms may start to face U.S. delisting threat.
Jul 14: Chinese $2.8bn memory chip project goes bust [LINK]
A Chinese company that launched a $2.8 billion government-backed semiconductor project four years ago is going bankrupt after it failed to attract investors, even as China tries to become self-sufficient in computer chips.
Jul 16: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months [LINK]
Jul 16: The $52 Trillion Bubble: China Grapples With Epic Property Boom [LINK]
Aug 26: U.S. Penalizes 24 Chinese Companies Over Role in South China Sea [LINK]
Aug 31: China’s Economy Shrinks, Ending a Nearly Half-Century of Growth [LINK]
Sep 09: Hongxin Semiconductor, promised China's first 7 nm chips, has gone bust [LINK]
A government-backed semiconductor manufacturing project based in the central Chinese city of Wuhan has gone belly-up, with key operator HSMC mired in debt. The local government said the project amounts to nearly RMB 128 billion (around $18.7 billion) in investment.
Sep 22: Huawei chairman urges U.S. to reconsider 'attack' on global supply chain [LINK]
Oct 13: EU imposes 48% tariffs on aluminium products from China [LINK]
Oct 18: China's economic growth drops to the lowest level since 1992 [LINK]
Oct 27: China’s Failing Small Banks Are Becoming a Big Problem [LINK]
The reality is that Beijing doesn’t have the wherewithal to guarantee the future of hundreds of smaller, provincial financial institutions that together sit on 73.4 trillion ($11 trillion USD) of yuan of total liabilities.

------------------------
☞ Go Back to the Short Story.
----
submitted by vanillabluesea to conspiracy [link] [comments]

A Short Story that Describes Imaginary Events and People of Worldwide Calamities and the Aftermath (the 2nd Edition)

The following story, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed in this post are fictitious. No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred.
However, the LINKS to real-life events and inspiring sources are placed here and there throughout the story.
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Truth is the Only Light
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INTRO
☞ [As of 2019] there are plenty of reasons to think the Chinese system will implode spectacularly without Japanese feeling the need to do a thing. — Peter Zaihan, Disunited Nations (Mar 03, 2020)
It's apparent that two nations have been engaged in a high-stakes military & economy arms race. The current US admin has been hitting China with waves of tariffs, but that was merely a small part of what's actually going on. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]
On Oct 11, 2019, when they reached a tentative agreement for the first phase of a trade deal, the fact that China made the concession actually made my jaw drop. From where I sit, it was a worrisome scene. Aren't people saying, when challenging situations are bottled up, they will just grow and mutate into another terrible complications?
Admittedly I was not certain how they are going to adhere to the agreement: It left most of the US tariffs (on China's exports) in place, and at the same time, came with an additional USD $200 Billion burden for China over the next two years. This agreement might seem a bit insignificant, but now China would need to purchase almost twice the size of the US products & services they did before the trade war began.
With their current economic climate? I murmured, "No way."
While watching Trump brag and boast around with said agreement, I expected China would soon come out and fling some improvised excuses in order to delay the document-signing process. It wouldn't be their first time. More importantly, even if China does so, there wouldn't be many (real) counterattack options left for the Trump admin during this year, the US presidential election year.
Then, on Jan 16, 2020, the world’s two largest economies actually signed a partial trade agreement aimed at putting the brakes on an 18-month trade war. China would almost surely not sit down but come back to bite, I thought.
Enter the worldwide chaos following so called the COVID-19 outbreak.
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BACKGROUND
☞ Globalists have been heavily investing in China's economy and its components overseas.
• Here are a couple of well known names: the Great Old One; George Soros; Koos Bekker; and Bill Gates.
• For the sake of convenience, from here on, let's call these globalists, who are foreign investors in China's top tier state-owned/sponsored/controlled enterprises, Team-Z.
• Team-Z has adopted big time lackeys like Henry Kissinger or small time ones like Larry Summers, Stephen Hadley, or Bill Browder as matchmakers to court Team-Z for China's top tier enterprises. When Israel's highest echelons chimed in, it has been through Israeli IT companies and the BRI projects.
• Naturally, multinational investment banks have also been employed; such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), UBS Group AG (formerly Union Bank of Switzerland), Blackstone Group, Canaccord Genuity, BlackRock, Hermitage, or Mirae Asset.
☞ Note: The Great Old One didn't use any matchmakers, something peasants would need. Because the Great Old One's power level is over 9000.
• China's Shanghai clique used to keep the nation's state-sponsored enterprises under their firm grip: Enterprises such as Alibaba Group, Tencent, Baidu, Wanda Group, HNA Group, Anbang Group, Evergrande Group, CEFC Energy and Huawei, all of which Team-Z has massively invested in.
Here is how Shanghai clique and Team-Z, esp. Bill Gates, started to get together: [LINK]
• However, in the name of anti-corruption campaign, Xi Jinping & his Princelings have been taking those businesses away from Shanghai clique's hand, and transforming those state-sponsored private enterprises into the state-owned enterprises, declaring the 國進民退 movement.
• Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
• 國進民退 + Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [A] [B] [C]
• Xi's reign didn't arrive today without challenges though: the BRI projects' poor outcome has frustrated Israel's great expectations. And since the US-China trade war has started, the problems of China's economic systems started to surface, not to mention China's economy has long been decaying.
• Coupled with the US-China trade war, the current US admin has been trying to block Huawei from accessing the international financial systems that the US can influence, as well as the US banking systems. This is a good time to remind you again that Bill Gates has had a very close-knit relationship with Huawei.
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TRADE WAR & INTERNET-BASED COMPANIES
☞ It's the trade war, but why were internet-based companies such as Tencent and Baidu suffering losses?
Answer: The state-sponsored companies like Tencent, Baidu, or Huawei have heavily invested in international trade and commodity markets, which are easily influenced by aspects that IMF interest rates, the US sanctions, or trade war can create.
Example: Let's say, Tencent invests in a Tehran-based ride-hailing company. Then, through said ride-hailing company, Tencent invests in Iran's petroleum industry. Now, China's most valuable IT company is in international petrochemical trade. The business is going to make great strides until the US imposes trade embargoes oand economic sanctions against Iran.
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TL;DR
China's economy going down = Team-Z losing an astronomical amount of money.
★ Wednesday, Sep 26, 2018 ★
"Gentlemen, you guys might want to do something before it's too bloody late, no? His speech last night was .... (sniggers) Mr. Gates, now is as good a time as any. Mr. Soros, hm, don't look at me like that."
".... But,"
"Yes, Mr. Soros, your HNA is going down, too. .... Ah, Schwarzman xiansheng, we're very sorry to learn about Blackstone's Iran & SinopecChina situation. So, we're guessing, you'd be happy to join Mr. Gates's operation, yes? Of course, We already contacted Kissinger xiansheng. .... Okay then, Gentlemen?"
• Now you can take a guess why George Soros has recently been sending out confusing messages regarding Xi Jinping.
• Wait, how about Wuhan Institute of Virology? Doesn't this story concern the COVID-19 outbreak? Is the Wuhan Institute also associated with Shanghai clique? Yes, indeed. Here's How Wuhan Institute of Virology and Shanghai Clique are related: [LINK]
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EIGHT OBJECTIVES
☞ Calling for the tide to be turned, Team-Z and Shanghai clique started to devise the plan. The objectives are:
By shutting down international trade, crashing world economy, and exploiting its aftermath, the plan should produce an outcome letting Team-Z earn back their loss from the trade war & the US sanctions, and collect additional profits from China's BRI projects & stock markets worldwide, including the US stock markets.
Don't forget this: This point number also concerns the developing nations on the BRI with the large deposits of natural resources that Team-Z has invested in through China. If everything comes together nicely, Team-Z will pick up trillions of dollars from those nations alone as if they are light as a feather. Ironically this will reinforce the BRI project governance and mitigate fraud & corruption risks inherent to the international development projects.
By utilizing the aftermath in the US, a new US administration consisted of pro-Beijing personnels should be fostered at the 2020 election. In a worst-case scenario, the aftermath should be abused enough to make Robert Lighthizer to leave the admin. Mr. Mnuchin could stay.
Sometime next year, the phase one trade deal must be reassessed with the new US admin. The reassessment should help China take the upper-hand at the second phase trade talk.
The pandemic crisis should yield a situation which allows China to delay the payments for its state-firm offshore debts. With the point number , this will give China a breathing room to manage its steadily-fallen forex reserves.
Since their current turf (in China) is education industry & medical science industry, Shanghai clique will have no issue with earning hefty profits by managing China's export of medical equipments & health care products which can be supplied worldwide mainly by China. People in the west will bent the knees for the clique's support.
☞ Regarding Jiang Zemin's son and medical science industry in China [LINK]
The outcome should weaken Xi & his Princelings' political power considerably in favour of Shanghai clique & Team-Z. This will let Jiang's Shanghai clique (A) reclaim some of political status & business interest controls they have lost to Xi & his Princelings.
• And once this point number , with the point number , is realized, it would be much easier for the clique to (B) recover their huge assets hidden overseas that the current US admin or Xi & his Princelings have frozen.
Combining good old bribery with sex, the outcome should support China to re-secure control over the US governors. Once the plan is executed successfully, those governors would desperately need solutions to local economic problems and unemployment.
Lastly, implementing an e-ID system in the US similar to Beijing's Alipay and WeChat could be the cherry on top of the operation's entire outcomes. Who's supporting such a system worldwide? None other than Microsoft and Rockefeller Foundation. ಠ_ಠ
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OLD COMRADE BECOMES A NEW RECRUIT
☞ They were afraid more talents were needed. The main target was the world’s largest economy with the most powerful military capability, after all.
They ended up asking Mr. Fridman to see Lord Putin about that. The old Vova was going through a lot nowadays, people said. It could be because his nation's energy business to Europe seems to be hitting wall after wall. He is said to have enough on his plate with no end in sight, so maybe he'll join.
★ Monday, Jan 15, 2018 ★
"(pours a drink for himself) I know, but. ... What would happen if Bashar falls? How long you think you can keep it up? .... Erdogan is many things (sniggers) but he's never gentle. (sips his drink slowly) When Benji's EastMed Pipeline starts to actively compete, then what? They got the China money now. .... Vagit and his buddies will be very unhappy. You know that. Not great, Vova."
"...."
"Ah, you mean what are we going to do? Hm? Hm. I'll tell you what we're going to do. This time, we're going to bankrupt the US shale gas sector. Then, of course, we can maybe convince Benji to take their time with the pipeline. Perhaps for good. (sips his drink slowly) Don't worry, Vova, It'll work. You worry too much. We'll come out the other side stronger."
"So, how long until they set it off?
"Hahaa, yes. They'll soon put all things in place. While marching in place, they'll play the tune a couple of months before the next sochelnik."
"Nearly 20 months to brace things here, then?"
"(nod slowly in happiness) Hm. Оторви́сь там, оттопы́рься, Vova"
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USEFUL IDIOTS
☞ When the directive came, these idiots answered claiming they would be gladly "on it." All in the name of rejuvenating China's economy without grasping the real objective prevailing throughout the entire operation. Thing is, they would never realize what they are to Team-Z & their Asian overlord until it’s too late.
Who are they? It's A and B, not A or B: (A) the American corporations that are too big to fail and have suffered a considerable loss because of the US-China trade war. Among those corporations, (B) the ones that have been structured with massive interest-profit relationships in/with China.
"We need China in order for the US as a nation to continue being prosper," they've been shouting. No surprise there, because they've enjoyed the strides of extraordinary profits over the years while the US middle class has continued to shrink.
But, in 2019 when China's stock markets nosedived for the first time since 2015 and China's authorities in financial stability & resiliency fumbled their response; it wiped that smile off their face. Still, they'll keep behaving not to offend their Asian overlord, nonetheless.
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PERFECT PLAN
☞ Many crucial components had to come into play all at once in order to cause World War I. If one of the components were missing or different, it is unlikely that the World War I as we know of could be produced.
The US in 2019: Overbought bubbles + Over borrowed corporations
The US in 2020: It's an Election Year.
Russia has been dumping US Treasuries for the past few years.
Russia has been hoarding golds as if they were recreating Inca Empire.
China in 2019: Immense & long term financial troubles has started to surface.
China in 2020: The phase-one deal has been signed; leaving most of tariffs on China intact and adding another $200 Billion burden for China.
Team-Z sets up a situation in the US where some event(s) would freeze the US supply chains & demand for the next three to ten months.
• Just like the 9/11, the event will be initiated at the clique's own region. However, unlike in China, the US will report multiple epicentres simultaneously.
• And the CDC and the US medical task force will carry on with a number of sabotage acts, to secure enough time for the infected yet untested in those US epicentres to spread plenty. [1] [2] [3]
• Here's a feasible timeline of the operation.
Then, the BOOM: Team-Z (a) manipulates the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns (b) when they need it most. The (c) bottomed out oil price will be an enforcement, which will also wreck the US energy sector as a kicker. The (d) WHO will also join as a disinformation campaign office.
• Then a couple of big name investment managers will lead a movement that (will try to) bring back foreign money back to China. [1] [2]
• Meanwhile, in US, the disinformation campaign will continue to be pushed until the second wave of attack arrives.
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MEASURABLE SHORT-TERM OUTCOME
☞ We're now going through World War III. The global structure laid down by World War II had been shaken by globalization and the rise of China. This pandemic event will shock the structure further. Human history will be divided into Before 2021 and After 2021.
① Outcome pt. 1: Immediate Aftermath [pt.1] [pt.2]
② Outcome pt. 2: The US economy goes deep dive along with world economy, and the only thing Team-Z has to do is to exploit the aftermath which has been thoroughly calculated and eagerly anticipated. — Favoured assessment: There won't be a V curve ever, unless drastic measures taken within the timeframe of four months. Unprecedented market crash, the rapid unemployment acceleration because of the supply-chain shut down, and the near-death security which in turn forces consumer confidence to plummet. We're looking at a super long L shape curve unless the US prepares fast for the second wave of their asymmetric warfare.
③ Outcome pt. 3: Arguably the most important outcome. — Because of the unprecedented shutdown of international trade, the nations heavily rely on exporting natural resources will face the extreme financial threats. What if some of those are emerging markets AND massively in debt to China? What do you think China would do to said nations while the aftermath is hitting the globe hard? [PDF] Something comparable to Latin American Debt Crisis will happen.
④ Outcome pt. 4: Not that significant compared to the others but still notable outcome. — The world will need Shanghai clique's help to get medical products and equipments.
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WHAT'S NEXT?
☞ Several analysts have discussed off the record that next it'd be a proxy warfare not using armed conflicts but with spreading a galaxy of counterfeit-currency across every possible channels.
Coincidently, on Dec 13, 2017, Business Insider reported in an article "A $100 counterfeit 'supernote' found in South Korea could have been made in North Korea" that:
"It was the first of a new kind of supernote ever found in the world," Lee Ho-Joong, head of KEB Hana Bank's anti-counterfeit centre told Agence France-Presse.
Reporting the same news, The Telegraph published an article on Dec 11, 2017:
"It seems that whoever printed these supernotes has the facilities and high level of technology matching that of a government", said Lee Ho-jung, a bank spokesman from KEB Hana Bank in South Korea. "They are made with special ink that changes colour depending on the angle, patterned paper and Intaglio printing that gives texture to the surface of a note".
ಠ_ಠ
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Tale of How Shanghai clique and Globalists Got Together
Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuhan City, & Shanghai Clique
Feasible Timeline of the COVID-19 Operation
Immediate Aftermath — pt.1.b
Immediate Aftermath — pt.2.a
Remdesivir, Gilead Sciences, Its Shareholders, & Silly Concern
Cases Displaying the Recent Climate of Chinese Economy
Compliance Report by the US State Department on China regarding Biological Weapons Convention — Click "2019 August Unclassified Compliance Report" and see p45.
Jiang Zemin's son & Medical Science Industry in China
What is Guanxi (關係)?
Israeli IT Companies & China
Opinion article "Cancel All Debt to China"
Fun Trivia about Bush Family and China
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submitted by vanillabluesea to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Prelude to a Market Bloodbath: a Ludicrous Theory of How It All Started.

The text below was actually a comment of mine on another Redditor's post, but since I think they all left for the day, I have decided to create a standalone post with it.
Even though it's my theory, tbh I prefer the other theory of mine, which is:
From the COVID-19 outbreak to the great oil war between Russia & Saudi to the market crash, this whole event is a live simulation that some powerful group is executing for their future plan.
But today, I would like to present my less favourable theory: Theory of How COVID-19 Pandemic Has Started.
Obviously, for some parts, I got the sources. But for others, it's just a speculation based on the well known (?) inner working (political) systems of China.

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-----------------------------------------------

Both Shanghai clique (Jiang Zemin) and Communist Youth League (Hu Jintao) want to unseat Xi Jinping.
.A. Because:
Shanghai clique detests Xi Jinping because Xi & his Princelings put many key politburo of Shanghai clique in jail in the name of anti-corruption.
And Princelings took away Shanghai clique's influences from big key Chinese businesses such as Wanda Group, Alibaba Group & Tencent.
Communist Youth League loathes Xi Jinping because Xi & his Princelings broke China's 太上王 institution, the nation's long standing political treaty among the ruling classes, by sidelining most of Hu Jintao's prominent politburo in the council.
Subsequently, the political power of Li Keqiang's (Communist Youth League) within State Council has been dramatically minimized over the years, although he is the No. 2 party figure.
It was a break with two previous generations of leadership, which were based on consensus among members of the ruling party’s inner circle of power, the Standing Committee, a.k.a China's 太上王 institution.
So,
Shanghai clique and Communist Youth League decided to work together to hatch a seemingly perfect plan:
- Unseating Xi Jinping would be the best outcome, but they knew it would be laborious.
- While keep trying to unseat Xi, this operation by their plan should be something to weaken Xi Jinping's power within State Council.
- The operation should also reboot the political power of Li Keqiang to re-boost the current status of Communist Youth League within State Council.
- The operation should also restore the financial flow for Shanghai clique & the businesses that are still under Shanghai clique's control.
- By weakening Xi Jinping's power, the operation should reinstate Shanghai clique's control of (at least some of) key businesses of the nation.
- Used-to-be hyper wealthy Shanghai clique decided they were to be okay with what's going to happen in the field, colossal businesses loss in the region;
because 1) most of better businesses used to be owned by them have been already taken away by Princelings anyway. And 2) a while ago their foreign financial backers, such as Henry Kissinger, George Soros & Koos Bekker who used to be kissy kissy with them, left for the new power in China. Now those backers seems to be in bed with Xi. And 3) Xi started to crack down Shanghai clique's assets hidden overseas with the inside-info those backers provided to Xi. exploding head gifs
- The operation's process must appear natural, so the blame could never fall onto neither of Shanghai clique nor Communist Youth League.
- For the operation, they needed to pick an appropriate region where the influence of Shanghai clique and Communist Youth League were still prevalent.
- All the blame should fall under Xi & Princelings' political and bureaucratic incompetence.
.B. Preparation:
- Dr. Wang Yanyi is a Chinese immunologist. She is the director general at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the deputy director for Wuhan in the China Zhi Gong Party.
- Dr. Wang Yanyi is married to Chinese professor Shu Hongbing.
- Shu Hongbing is a Chinese cytologist and immunologist. He is a tier-1 member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and a close associate of Jiang Mianheng thru said Academy and Shanghai Tech University connection.
- Jiang Mianheng is Jiang Zemin's son (Jiang Zemin = No. 1 in Shanghai clique). Jiang Mianheng has served as Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the first President of ShanghaiTech University.
- Because many international bodies are closely monitoring the NBL-4 facility in Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory and in turn the NBL-3 facility in the same laboratory attracts fewer observing eyes from outside bodies, they decided to use the latter to pick & modify the pathogen.
- The pathogen's spreading speed should be rapid to achieve the maximum effect.
- Jiang Chaoliang is a pro-Shanghai clique Chinese politician and he was the Communist Party Secretary of Hubei.
- Later, as a result of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, Jiang Chaoliang has been replaced by Ying Yong, a close ally of Xi Jinping.
.C. Operation:
- The operators released a pathogen of their choice in Hubei near the end of 2019. The holiday season was coming up, so there would be large frequent crowds to spread the pathogen.
- Some people in the region started to experience flu like symptoms but they didn't think much about it because it's a Winter season.
- Seeing numerous passengers were unusually ill, the cab drivers in Wuhan city knew something was up with the area close to the city laboratory.
- The number of flu patients in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University started to curiously go up.
- The CPC bureaucrats in said hospitals started to report the situation to their superiors. Then, in turn, those superiors reported to politburo in State Council.
- Finally, Xi Jinping received the news regarding the situation in Wuhan city.
- On Jan. 7, 2020, Xi demanded during a Politburo Standing Committee to take care of the situation.
- Jiang Chaoliang and the other pro-Shanghai clique politburo in Hubei province pretended listening to Xi's order but they quietly ignored it by suppressing the evidences + sabotaging the field. -- Have you read the article which was reporting that the researchers received a gag order from China’s NHC with instructions to destroy the samples?
- Shanghai clique & Communist Youth League told their relatives and close associates to leave the region. It would look business as usual because it's near the Chinese New Year holiday season.
- Remember, Academics & the related institutions in China are Shanghai clique's turf.
- On Jan. 14, W.H.O declared that "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China."
- On Jan. 20, 2020, after realizing his previous directions were conveniently ignored, Xi gave special instructions to control the now-became outbreak.
- But again the pro-Shanghai clique politburo in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province pretended following Xi's instructions but ultimately ignored those by still sabotaging the proceedings.
- Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang allowed and in fact applauded a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct, who (on the ordinary people levels) are mostly the supporters of Xi Jinping. ---- It's going to be interesting to see who they would blame later on if there were to be a disaster in the region.
- On Jan. 23, 2020, after having confirmed their relatives and close associates left the region, they imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province.
- Before the lockdown, 5 million people have already left Wuhan city. It was on. Some of them went to their homes in the different regions of China. But some people with connections & means left China and went to U.S., South Korea, Iran, Italy, & France, which are Chinese tourists' popular destinations.
- Xi Jinping and his Princelings now suspected something was not right. Xi disappeared from the public view.
- Willy Lam, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, commented that Xi Jinping's activities after his lengthy public disappearance looked like an attempt to shift blame to Li Keqiang if progress in fighting the disease is unsatisfactory.
.D. Outcome:
- With his performance of containing the situation were being praised by State Council, Li Keqiang's political power has been expanded within the council. ---- Li Keqiang belongs to China's Communist Youth League, which has been under Shanghai clique's control.
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- On Feb. 1, the US was the one of the first nations in the world along with Russia and N. Korea that banned not just Chinese nationals but all foreigners travelling from mainland China, declares public health emergency. And China and some US media criticized Trump for stoking fear and overreacting.
- On Feb. 3, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. ---- Let's see where those money will go to. (Actually we would never find out but it will probably go to key people of Shanghai clique.)
- On Feb. 7, China National Petroleum Corp. has recently declared Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to make a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019.
- On Feb. 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. ---- My guess is that at this moment, the US admin noticed something is up, so they tried to secure some leverage against Russia.
- Around Feb. 24, China is rumoured (on Twitter) to delay its US-China phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increasement of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years.
- If China indeed delays the phase one trade deal implementation, there won't be many comebacks (such as more tariffs) that the US can carry through, because now the pandemic is happening within the US Soil.
- On Feb. 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.89 and closed 3128.21. By Feb. 28, it dropped to 2954.22.
- On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others.
-----------------------------------------------
- On Mar. 1, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law.
- On Mar. 1, Princelings published an awesome propaganda called A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020 which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus.
- Starting at Mar. 3, the Fed has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus.
- On Mar. 4, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China (理直气壮, 世界应该感谢中国)."
- Said article states "If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only (banning exports), the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic."
- This Xinhua article would be in part Shanghai clique's grand posturing (who are holding political power & capacity in medicals & biochemicals of China) to show off to people of China that Shanghai clique is still relevant in power.
- On Mar. 5, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely.
- On Mar. 7, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. ---- Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & Morgan Stanley.
- Interestingly, one common factor that connects Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & Morgan Stanley is China.
- On Mar. 8, the Russia–Saudi oil price war has initiated. The ostensible reason was simple. China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers as the coronavirus outbreak forced the economy to a standstill.
- On, Mar. 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging.
- On Mar. 16, the fan club of Europe globalists (:D) has published a piece, China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity. The piece says the following:
Combined with the new aid disbursements and advice the other countries, Chinese leaders appear to be hoping that their heavily-promoted success in fighting the virus helps Beijing appear like a global leader on public health – and thus ready to take on other types of global leadership.
“The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful” [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda.
This is not necessarily true. After all, other wealthy Asian states have shown different, effective models. But it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.
- On Mar. 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history and falling to its lowest level in nearly three years. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope.
-----------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
Many thanks for reading up my long ass post!! -- The updated version is hopefully coming soon. :D
submitted by vanillabluesea to conspiracy [link] [comments]

The Weekend *SPECIAL EDITION*: TURKISH

SPECIAL WEEKEND EDITION

Let's talk.
Turkish Lira shit the bed Friday. I wouldn't normally worry about an emerging economy's currency as I don't trade exotics, and they tend not to cause too much trouble when they go haywire. The ramifications here are a bit different, and because of irresponsible lending by the ECB and others, along with increasing bad debt on Turkey's behalf, these ramifications have wider effects than just TRY.
The problem comes that European banks are worried about their exposure to Turkey's bad debt. Turkey is calling for ridiculous levels of rate raising to counter inflation and to try to supercharge their now weakening currency. At first, this will bolster the TRY, but the trade off will likely be much more painful: rampant inflation will likely destabilize the currency. This comes hand in hand with a stronger dollar, which hurts many emerging nations as borrowing is much more expensive and painful, slowing their growth, which then perpetuates the cycle as investors slow their capital due to lower growth targets. On top of this, Trump is moving forward with tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum, a major export for them. Ouch!
EDIT the end point for this is a potential new European debt crisis that potentially spirals into a global correction or worse. Stay tuned, history is being made as you watch....
Esoterically, Erdogan is using the SAME TYPE of language that other dictators use during tough times. Rewind to Venezuela during their crash; both Maduro, and before him, Chavez used this same goofy rhetoric of coming together, not sparing for yourself, and offhandedly suggesting that those who are hiding money out of fear are part of the problem, are exacerbating "the enemy's" position, and are potential traitors for not believing in the central government. This is a red flag for me, as throughout history, this type of strong man language is a harbinger of worse times to come. As u/gorillaz0e has pointed out, the Lira took a dive as Erdogan started to speak as the speculators, banks, and economists saw this same thing: all talk, no substance.
There's a decent chance that ECB will float another loan to try to shore this domino up. We will see how it plays out this weekend, and Monday. Make sure you read this article and thread by u/J32926

BE CAUTIOUS NEXT WEEK. EUR, USD, and CHF are likely to be the big plays this coming week. CHF saw a huge influx of currency throughout the day; as one of our redditors said, it's nice to see it functioning as a safe haven again! If you are new, or don't know what you are doing, now is a great time for a demo account, small position, or just don't touch anything and watch.

This thread is for discussion of next week's plans. You can talk about this week, but let's have some substance.

CHECK YOUR CALENDARS

Read up on what is occurring:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-pulled-into-global-selloff-as-turkeys-currency-crisis-raises-the-alarm-2018-08-10
https://www.ft.com/content/f50594a8-9c96-11e8-ab77-f854c65a4465
submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex [link] [comments]

PAUL JOHNSON Q&A ON TELEGRAM

1 Question : Exchange launch
Answer : In terms of timeline, we're looking to launch Beta by end of April. Live launch to occur once we're happy and customers are happy with the beta, and all bugs are worked out. We're fully commited to releasing beta by end of April. I've had sneak peaks, and I'm confident this will occur. We have a very unique platform, unlike anything else that exists in the market, but still with the functionality that everyone is looking for.
2 Question : How are we going to stake tio for LP? Cold wallet? Or through tio wallet?
Answer : Through TIO wallet. You'll be able to add or remove TIO from the wallet at your discretion, providing the ultimate in flexibility for the participants
3 Question : When Binance?
Answer : As usual, any new exchanges will be announced as they arise. We will only add TIO to established exchanges. Of course, every company wants to be on Binance, given their importance in the crypto community. With that said, though, being an exchange ourselves, our major objective is to ensure the question starts being "When trade.io". That is our ultimate goal.
4 Question : For LP, the daily payout will be in fiat or in different cryptos?
Answer : At the onset, until we're able to offer fiat/crypto exchanges, payouts will be daily in crypto.
5 Question : Is Mobile app also planned ? and by when date we can download it from Google play ?
Answer : Yes, no time frame has been established in terms of release, but I would safely expect it a "few" months from release of the platform. Due note, the platform will be optimized for mobile, so you should have no issues using it on most any mobile device.
6 Question : A "long term" ques, for traditional markets (ie equities, FX), what are TIO's a) Competitive advantage b) Plan to attract clients from traditional brokers
Answer : a. Competitive advantage - Competitive advantage apart from a unique, responsive and fully customizable platform is world class customer support and funding/withdrawal. b. Plan to attract clients from traditional brokers -
7 Question : Only two other exchanges have tokens, i.e. BNB & KCS, (Binance & Kucoin) with both having performed fairly well. So my question is how does trade.io plan to differentiate itself from these 2 exchanges.
Answer : We're looking to provide an experience, despite the amount of clients we have, that every client will feel that they are receiving personalized service. We have already hired close to 100+ customer support personnel who are fully trained and ready to rock. Ageed, they are both very formidable exchanges who have done very well in a fairly short amount of time. In addiiton to the exchange itself and support, obviously the liquidity pool is a very unique value add proposition. To our knowledge we're the only exchange that is bascially giving back up to .50 on each dollar earned. This provides an extraordinary opportunity to LP participants.
8 Question : Hey Paul, what will be the process for picking beta testers?
Answer : We will be reaching out to our most loyal TIO holders. You will be contacted by an admin if you're on the short list.
9 Question : Why do you think that the value of the TIO has risen in recent days?
Answer : Obviously the overall market sentiment has helped. I don't want to speak specifically on TIO, but its very nice to see the market has perhaps found a bottom and its time for the companies with actual products and potential rising. I also think the relatively low amount of circulating tokens helps TIO move with very small volume. That was part of the gameplan with keepping the amount of TIO low, and locking a majority of them into the LP.
10 Question : Paul, thinking strategically, how do u see traditional financial platforms like Bloomberg, that are already connected to the financial markets, providing its own crypto exchange( the product that they lack now) to Institutional Investors? When do expect this to happen? And how trade.io will be positioning to attract institution facing this players.
Answer : Great question, we're actually very interested in having discussions with the larger financial platforms to utilize trade.io platform in a white label type format. We feel an exchange that can tap into these large financial portals will have a tremendous competitive advantage, as no single exchange can out spend an bloomberg, etc for market share. Our first major move is by participating in the IFX Expo in May in Cyprus which is the largest gathering of forex brokers both institutional and retail we will be pitching our services to them as well as we are already positioning a white label service of our platform. Stay tuned to our social for updates on this.
11 Question : After the launch of the exchange followed by (unique and awesome) liquidity pool, what is the next big focus of trade.io ?
Answer : World domination! We want to perfect our exchange, liqudiity pool and consulting services quite honestly as they are our core products. We will have bugs, issues, etc. to work through upon launch as every company from Apple to Google has these issues. Its only once we're comfortable with these 3 facets we'll look to start executing additional initiatives. Too often companies try to focus on multiple things out of the starting gate without perfecting their core initiatives. We don't want to fall into that trap.
12 Question : Any plans to partner with coinfi, cindicator, or other platforms to give tradeio platform users an edge? After all, we want users to actively use tradeio daily
Answer : Yes, we are in talks with many 3rd parties that want to partner with trade.io. We are always interested in value adds for our clients.
13 Question : Some months ago, you did a questionnaire about which coins the users want to be added to the exchange, and in the end you gave us a list. It's still early, but wanted to know if that list is still valid?
Answer : Yes, very much so. The gameplan is to launch the major coins first, such as ETH, BTC, BCH, LTC, etc. Then gradually offer the altcoins. We have decided not to offer 100's of tokens on day 1, in order to work through any minor bugs.
14 Question : What are the current biggest challenges faced by TIO and how do you plan to overcome them ?
Answer : As Jim Preissler, our CEO has discussed multiple times, the ever changing regulatory landscape is something that impacts every type of company in crypto. We welcome regulation, however. trade.io is chock full of people that have worked most of their career in regulated industries, this gives us a tremendous advantage in navigating around these uncertain times. Another challenge is security and keeping on top of it. To that end, we have spent a tremendous amount of resources on ensuring our security is robust from Day 1. Too often companies only look to tighten up security after an incident has happen. We have taken a much more proactive stance on security.
15 Question : Will tradeio offer usd pairings in beta or when forex is ready?
Answer : Beta will include USDT pairs.
16 Question : Have we gotten the SEC license?
Answer : No license has been procured in the US. Its actively being worked on using multiple legal teams. We will keep everyone updated as this unfolds.
17 Question : Any marketing plan next month?
Answer : Marketing will be sharing their plans as we get closer to the end of the month. but we have IFX EXPO in May. Please read what Helen Astaniou Chief Marketing Officer has shared during her AMA here - https://www.reddit.com/TradeIOICO/comments/89bz4u/live_qa_with_tradeios_cmo_helen_astaniou_on/
18 Question : If I have 25K tio tokens right now. what will you tell me to do?
Answer : Well, we really can't advise one way or the other, but it goes without saying the liquidity pool is a major useage for TIO and provides tremendous advantages to participate in the success of trade.io The pretty cool thing about the liqudiity pool, is that you're only sharing in the good times and not the bad. You'll only see credits into your account, never debits.
19 Question : What other cool stuff aside from LP that trade.io can offer? to increase more the price of TIO's.?
Answer : a) Partnerships b) More visiblity c) White Labeling of Platform d) ICO Consulting and many, many other things.
20 Question : When do you think you'll be hitting the drums of advertisement? I think this is needed. 1 months from now, 2, 3? Thx
Answer : We'll be engaging in various marketing channels both online and offline to attract direct traders very soon. clear messaging on the benefit mentioned above. This will include where a trader can act as a trader and a liquidity partner at the same time as well as partnerships with existing brokers ..specifically the smaller ones as they suffer from obtaining best pricing for clearing their trades.. hence the liqudiity pool acting as a liquidity and clearing partner. Long story short, very soon, i.e. weeks and not months
submitted by tradeio to TradeIOICO [link] [comments]

ITT: I teach you how simple it is to trade Fundemental Analysis

I did one for technical analysis, so here's one for fundemental analysis (here is the previous thread: http://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/2nc2dt/itt_i_teach_you_how_simple_it_is_to_make_money_in/ )
Steps:
  1. Realize that Fundemental Analysis is extremely important to the success of a trader who trades the Daily and above timeframes. The goal is to make sure that the trend from TA lines up with the view from FA. (ie. Bullish FA + Bullish TA= success).
  2. Go to http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php to view all news events. Change the settings to show only [RED] expected impact. We mainly care about Inflation, Central Banks, and Speeches. Red just means high volatility upon release.
  3. The BIGGEST problem most people have with trading FA is that they think EVERY red news is important. That is FALSE. We mainly care about the Central Banks and what they do with any Stimulus, Interest Rates, and Inflation. These are the 3 holy grails for trading FA. The Central Bank are the ones who calls the shots.
  4. Go to www.investopedia.com and learn what Central banks montary statements, Quantiative Easing, Interest Rates, and Inflation really is. You want to know how the market reacts to a Quantiative easing, highelower intrest rates or inflation, ect ect ect.
  5. Every month or so, a country will release a statement that's given by the central bank. You will need to read these statements, and trust me it's not hard. It's only once a month for each currency for gods sakes.

    Currency|BankName

    EUR: ECB

    USD: FOMC

    AUD: RBA

    NZD: RBNZ

    CAD: BOC

    JPY: BOJ

    GBP: BOE

  6. Click on this image: http://prntscr.com/5vixoy .

    The Red box is what you click on to bring down more information.

    The Pink box is a basic outline of what that news event is.

    The blue box is the important one. This is where 3rd party news articles about that news event is posted. (i prefer bloomberg and reuters).

    Click on any of them to read it. Notice that they fill up with 3rd party articles AFTER the news release (duh).
  7. The point isn't to trade before the central bank news release, but AFTERWARDS. You want to know what the central bank is thinking. An example: Doing a Quantitative easing will cause the value of a currency to fall, since USD did 3 quantitative easing in the past, this happened: http://prntscr.com/5tuebl . Notice how when the bank said they WILL do it soon, it caused a rally. We love these rallys. We make $$$ off this shit.
  8. So you basically want to read what they are saying and figure out which direction they are looking towards. Not every country is WANTING to increase the value of their currency. Some care more about inflation, interest rates, unemployment, ect. Reading the central bank statements will TELL YOU. Remember to always keep in mind that market sentiment WILL change based on economic data releases. Meaning if we know USD will be bullish, it's only once certainly bullish IF criteria is met. That criteria may be any of the economic indicators, and if they're NOT met, expect pullbacks. You can either trade these pullbacks (bit risky) or you can use them as opportunities to make trades toward the overall goal of the central bank (Buy USD in this case). Also, don't think that when a central bank says 'we want to increase interest rates in February.' means that they WILL do it in February. If the indicators aren't good, they won't increase it.
  9. Example: BOJ wants to issue a quantitative easing stimulus on 10-31-2014. So, Trebel decides to not use his indicators and decides to short JPY because he learned that doing a Quantiative easing stimulus causes the value of that currency to fall dramatically (not to mention Tecnical analysis says that the trend for JPY is bearish)! Trebel is now happy and can go chase some big booties with his money.
  10. Example 2: SilkyBrah decides to buy JPY because they had good unemployment numbers , but later he finds out he got margin called. WHY?! Because JPY doesn't care about their unemployment numbers like USA does, they care about something else. SilkyBrah will next time read the central bank statement to know what event is important for that country.
Some of you probably don't understand WHICH news event is from the central bank, so here's a picture: http://prntscr.com/5vj12g
EDIT: I tried to dumb this down as much as possible.
Thanks for the Reddit gild/gold whoever it was. No idea what I do with them though lol
EDIT2: Okay. Bloomberg's new website layout is beyond horrible. I now will use Reuters and other competitors instead.
submitted by masudhossain to Forex [link] [comments]

The sanctions paradox, With Russia's energy exports denominated in USD and their state budget in RUB help me understand how sanctions are really going to have any effect on their government reddit.

I do a bit of forex trading in my spare time as a hobby and after trying to figure out have we hit the bottom on the rouble yet I was left thinking things can't really get to bad for the Russian state budget and it's really only their citizens that are going to be left feeling the pinch, Just hear me out and fell free to correct my thesis.
So anyway Russia typically prices it's oil and gas contracts in USD thanks to the current "petrodollar" standard in energy contracts. The vast majority of their income comes through energy exports and they get paid in USD.
They can now get 46 roubles for every dollar of oil sold compared to this time last year as a result of the 36% year on year decline in the value of RUB vs USD which means their many of their obligations and public sector wages also declined 36%.
In other words this is going to screw ordinary Russian worker but the declining rouble is going to have little to no effect on the Russian government's ability to balance the books and ironically makes it easier for them to pay pensions/benefits/public sector wages
Now the one thing that is going to hurt them in the short term is the decline in oil prices since 40% of their exports are crude oil but Russia has been running a huge trade surplus in recent years and even with sanctions and lower oil prices this continues to be the case presently.
Oct 10, 2014
Russia’s trade surplus widened in August as President Vladimir Putin banned food imports from the U.S. and some of its allies.
The surplus was $15.8 billion, up 12 percent from a year earlier, the central bank in Moscow said today on its website. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was $16.1 billion. Imports decreased 12 percent to $25.1 billion and exports fell 3.7 percent to $40.9 billion.
Thing is when it comes to a trade war cash is king and Russia seems to have no problem covering it's obligations as regards imports. Compare that to Ukraine on the other hand who's declining currency and increasing trade defect mean it needs foreign aid just to pay for the day to day goods it's importing.
In short I cant find any credible economic threat that the west poses to Russia that doesn't come back to bite them in the ass themselves, lower oil prices are going to have a blowback effect on Us shale and Canadian tar sands production of which many require $80 a barrel prices just to be profitable.
Anyway I hope you appreciate my analysis, I did this mainly for myself as I opened a short position on the rouble back in March when the central bank was still intervening to support the price but now that it's stopped and the rouble has been allowed to float I'm pretty much going to close my position unless there is something I'm seriously overlooking here.
Sources:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUchart http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/russia-august-trade-surplus-rises-as-imports-decline-on-food-ban.html
submitted by Ididpotato to UkrainianConflict [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/news/: 'Rip-roaring' job market adds another 241,000 in March: ADP/Moody's

I was banned from /news/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from CNBC, its title was:
Private payrolls grow by 241K in February vs. 205K est.: ADP/Moody's Analytics
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/PositiveTrumpNews/: 'Rip-roaring' job market adds another 241,000 in March: ADP/Moody's

I was banned from /PositiveTrumpNews/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from CNBC, its title was:
Private payrolls grow by 241K in February vs. 205K est.: ADP/Moody's Analytics
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/The_Donald/: Will the winning never end...Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years - WSJ

I was banned from /The_Donald/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from wsj.com, its title was:
Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/news/: Private payrolls grow by 241K in March vs. 205K est.: ADP/Moody's Analytics

I was banned from /news/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from CNBC, its title was:
Private payrolls grow by 241K in February vs. 205K est.: ADP/Moody's Analytics
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/The_Donald/: 'Rip-roaring' job market adds another 241,000 in March: ADP/Moody's

I was banned from /The_Donald/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from CNBC, its title was:
Private payrolls grow by 241K in February vs. 205K est.: ADP/Moody's Analytics
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/news/: 'Rip-roaring' job market adds another 241,000 in March: ADP/Moody's

I was banned from /news/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from CNBC, its title was:
Private payrolls grow by 241K in February vs. 205K est.: ADP/Moody's Analytics
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

FXPA White Paper: Sources of FX Market Liquidity During the Brexit Vote

The (brief and simple) whitepaper offers a behind-the-scenes look at liquidity flows during the Brexit vote. This isn't a topic that has garnered much attention, given the spot market had fairly minimal dysfunction during Brexit, and the paper itself doesn't offer the same level of highly detailed insight into bank trader activities that the criminal trial of HSBC FX trader Mark Johnson did.
What it does contain though is a very peculiar pearl of information, through its analysis of bank vs non-bank flows during the unfolding of the event.
Over the sample window, banks were responsible for 66.6% of Cable flow, 67.25% of EUGBP flow, 64.9% of EUUSD flow, 64.1% of USD/JPY and 61.7% of EUJPY
compare this to:
The proportion of flow in GBP/JPY was wild – with non-bank participants in one hour responsible for 96% of flow and in another, just 9%.
That non-bank participants should completely dominate flows for that cross seems notable.
One contributing factor is highlighted earlier in the paper.
The non-bank proportion rose in EUGBP and EUJPY, but could be because the data suggest the non-banks are more active in crosses than the “legs”. Several of these firms construct a price in the cross using the legs and because their technology is often nimbler and quicker, they are top of book in the more complex pairs.
(Emphasis mine)
What does all this mean for your trading?
For most people, it means nothing at all, as most retail traders get no further than the chart as printed and a series of set criteria.
For traders who work with market feel, or the lower timeframes, it raises some interesting question about whether or not non-bank liquidity feels different from bank dominated markets.
Non-bank liquidity providers are certainly working with a different agenda, different tech, and different liquidity networks from banks. And whilst not necessarily behaving unethically, they are also less likely to have a prudential-oriented client focus - banks in theory are trying to get best price for clients without disrupting the market, non-bank actors don't necessarily operate by these principles.
They also are more likely to operate with different risk parameters - high turnover, 'hot potato' providers have less depth of pocket than banks, so perhaps there might be more churn and candle-wick-y-ness, especially on thinner liquidity networks.
This is very subjective, and speculative, of course, but that is the nature of the way some of us play the game!
Here is the direct download link for the full text: https://fxpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FXPA-brexit1B-FINAL.pdf
(The FXPA is the Foreign Exchange Professionals Association, an industry group whose founders include Bloomberg, CME, ICE, State Street and Virtu. It's an organisational body, so does not take membership from individuals).
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/The_Donald/: Over 3 MILLION jobs added since election!!

I was banned from /The_Donald/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from USA Today, its title was:
ADP says businesses added 241,000 jobs in March
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

Free Currency Exchange @ Interbank rates

This may be of benefit to anyone with a foreign currency account or planning to travel over the summer (or even wanting to play the forex markets).
Revolut offer a travel money card which has no fees and offers the interbank rates to exchange between EUR, USD & GBP and for purchases via the card. It also lets you transfer in/out from USD, EUR & GBP accounts (they won't charge you anything, outside the EU your bank may do). There is a referral code on Money Saving Expert (don't think i'm allowed to post it here) that gets you £5 extra credit when you top up £500 (apparently it is possible to open an account, transfer £500 in then £505 straight out - although I haven't tried this).
So this can effectively be used for completely free transfers to/from USD/EUR & free purchases on a much bigger list of currencies. And for free spending in other currencies. As with all prepaid mastercards your money is in a ring fenced account with a major bank (in this case barclays). So you are safe if Revolut go bust, but not if barclays do - if that is a concern don't leave large amounts of cash in the card account.
Another thing to be wary of - you get interbank rates when markets are open. Yesterday I got exactly the mid price on Bloomberg. However when market is closed this is not guaranteed (they claim to protect themselves from swings between close and open). For GBP/EUR today its ~1% under.
submitted by cbzoiav to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

ITT: I teach you how simple it is to trade Fundemental Analysis

I did one for technical analysis, so here's one for fundemental analysis.
Steps:
  1. Realize that Fundemental Analysis is extremely important to the success of a trader who trades the Daily and above timeframes. The goal is to make sure that the trend from TA lines up with the view from FA. (ie. Bullish FA + Bullish TA= success).
  2. Go to http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php to view all news events. Change the settings to show only [RED] expected impact. We mainly care about Inflation, Central Banks, and Speeches. Red just means high volatility upon release.
  3. The BIGGEST problem most people have with trading FA is that they think EVERY red news is important. That is FALSE. We mainly care about the Central Banks and what they do with any Stimulus, Interest Rates, and Inflation. These are the 3 holy grails for trading FA. The Central Bank are the ones who calls the shots.
  4. Go to www.investopedia.com and learn what Central banks montary statements, Quantiative Easing, Interest Rates, and Inflation really is. You want to know how the market reacts to a Quantiative easing, highelower intrest rates or inflation, ect ect ect.
  5. Every month or so, a country will release a statement that's given by the central bank. You will need to read these statements, and trust me it's not hard. It's only once a month for each currency for gods sakes.

    Currency|BankName

    EUR: ECB

    USD: FOMC

    AUD: RBA

    NZD: RBNZ

    CAD: BOC

    JPY: BOJ

    GBP: BOE

  6. Click on this image: http://prntscr.com/5vixoy .

    The Red box is what you click on to bring down more information.

    The Pink box is a basic outline of what that news event is.

    The blue box is the important one. This is where 3rd party news articles about that news event is posted. (i prefer bloomberg and reuters).

    Click on any of them to read it. Notice that they fill up with 3rd party articles AFTER the news release (duh).
  7. The point isn't to trade before the central bank news release, but AFTERWARDS. You want to know what the central bank is thinking. An example: Doing a Quantiative easing will cause the value of a currency to fall, since USD did 3 quantiative easing in the past, this happened: http://prntscr.com/5tuebl . Notice how when the bank said they WILL do it soon, it caused a rally. We love these rallys. We make $$$ off this shit.
  8. So you basically want to read what they are saying and figure out which direction they are looking towards. Not every country is WANTING to increase the value of their currency. Some care more about inflation, interest rates, unemployment, ect. Reading the central bank statements will TELL YOU.
  9. Example: BOJ wants to issue a quantitative easing stimulus on 10-31-2014. So, Trebel decides to not use his indicators and decides to short JPY because he learned that doing a Quantiative easing stimulus causes the value of that currency to fall dramatically (not to mention Tecnical analysis says that the trend for JPY is bearish)! Trebel is now happy and can go chase some big booties with his money.
  10. Example 2: SilkyBrah decides to buy JPY because they had good unemployment numbers , but later he finds out he got margin called. WHY?! Because JPY doesn't care about their unemployment numbers like USA does, they care about something else. SilkyBrah will next time read the central bank statement to know what event is important for that country.
Some of you probably don't understand WHICH news event is from the central bank, so here's a picture: http://prntscr.com/5vj12g
EDIT: I tried to dumb this down as much as possible.
And here is the previous thread: http://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/2nc2dt/itt_i_teach_you_how_simple_it_is_to_make_money_in/
submitted by masudhossain to Fundamentalanalysis [link] [comments]

How to Trade XAU/USD: Trend Trading Strategy 📈💰 - YouTube EUR/USD Technical Analysis for May 20, 2020 by FXEmpire USD/CAD Technical Analysis For May 12, 2020 By FX Empire US Dollar, Wall Street Analysis: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD Bets and Trends Broad USD set to stay on weak footing - YouTube EUR/USD and GBP/USD Forecast May 1, 2020 IJS TV: 05_23_2017 LIVE TRADE!!!!!! USD/TRY FOREX TRADE

Current exchange rate US DOLLAR (USD) to TURKISH LIRA (TRY) including currency converter, buying & selling rate and historical conversion chart. USD/TRY live exchange rate, Charts, Forecasts, News and Macro Data. Everything you need to know about the currency pair. There is political risk to this pair right now, but one could cautiously begin scaling into a short USD/TRY position. I could easily be wrong but I see this pair hitting 2.000 by August. Depending on election results in Turkey we could see 1.85 by Christmas. I just wanted to start a discussion here as a search for interactive trading of this pair didn't turn up anything up to date. Current exchange rates of major world currencies. Find updated foreign currency values, a currency converter and info for foreign currency trading. Huge movement for the #Turkish #Lira today, rallying to a day low of 7.79 TRY/USD amid #Turkey's latest ease on FX trading limits and hopes of a rate hike. Don't get too excited though. #FX ... At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of Forex currency pairs like USD/TRY. If you are looking for Forex pairs with good return, USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 7.817 at 2020-11-12 (today's range: 7.801 - 7.836). Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase ... USD/TRY, EUR/TRY Jump to Record Highs on Lira Weakness 2020-08-06 16:00:00 Silver Surfing Higher, USD/TRY Spikes to Record High, GBP Jumps on BoE - US Market Open

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How to Trade XAU/USD: Trend Trading Strategy 📈💰 - YouTube

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